BEFORE THE CITY COUNCIL
FOR THE CITY OF HOOD RIVER, OREGON

ORDINANCE NO. 2019

An Ordinance amending the City of Hood River Comprehensive Land Use Plan by deleting Table 15 (Population Forecast) from the Background Report and adopting a new Table 15 (Population Forecast 2008-2018) for the Comprehensive Land Use Plan Background Report that includes population projections for Hood River County, the City of Hood River, the City of Cascade Locks and the unincorporated portions of Hood River County.

 The Hood River City Council makes the following findings:

 WHEREAS, the City of Hood River is conducting housing needs analysis to assess the need for residential land within Hood River Urban Growth Boundary (UGB).  A foundational part of the housing needs analysis is a forecast for population growth over the 20-year planning period.  The population forecast is based on a forecast that is coordinated, adopted by both the City of Hood River and Hood River County; and

 WHEREAS, in 2008, the City of Hood River and Hood River County adopted a coordinated population forecast. The forecast is documented in the report: Hood River County Coordinated Population forecast 2008-2028, October 2008, attached as Exhibit A to this Ordinance and incorporated herein by this reference.  This document provides a forecast of population growth for Hood River for the 2007 to 2035 period; and

 WHEREAS, the portion of the report that addresses the Urban Growth Area of the City of Hood River presents population forecasts for the entire UGB.  These values are present in Table 15-Population Forecast, City of Hood River UGB, 2007-2035 on page 26 Exhibit A; and

 WHEREAS, the goal of the population estimates was to forecast the population of the entire UGA.  However, only the population of the City of Hood River was used as the starting population base in 2007.  This implies (probably unintentionally) there was no population within the UGB outside the city limits in 2007, which is an incorrect assumption.  Therefore, the populations presented in Table 15 are only valid for the City of Hood River’s city limits and not for the entire UGA; and

 WHEREAS, in order to use the adopted population forecast of 2008 in for the Buildable Lands Inventory, the Department of Land Conservation and Development requested that the City revise Table 15 of the Hood River County Coordinated Population Forecast 2008-2028.  The forecast uses the factual basis in the adopted forecast report, with updated data about Hood River’s population, which is attached as Exhibit A to this Ordinance; and

 WHEREAS, Table 15 of Exhibit A is the revised population forecast for the Hood River UGB for the 2014 to 2035 period, and the methodology used to amend the population forecast and construct Table15 relies upon the following assumptions:

• Population base in 2014. The population in 2014 in Hood River’s UGB is estimated to be 9,134 people.
o Population within the city limits. The Population Research Center at Portland State University’s estimate of population with Hood River’s city limits was 7,545 people in 2014. This estimate is used in the revised forecast in Table 15.
o Population within the urbanizing area. The urbanizing area is the area within Hood River’s UGB but outside of the city limits. In 2006, there were about 656 dwellings in the urbanizing area. At an average of 2.25 persons per household based on the household size assumptions in the Transportation System Plan, there were 1,475 people in the urbanizing area.

Assuming that population in the urbanizing area grew at 2.0%, the rate of growth in the adopted population forecast for Hood River; population in the urbanizing area would have grown by 219 people to 1,695 people. By 2014, the urbanizing area had approximately 1,589 people.
o Population in the UGB. Table 15 shows population in Hood River’s city limits and urbanizing area combined to 9,134 people in 2014.
• Forecast growth rate. The forecast in Table 15 assumes that population in the Hood River UGB will grow at an average annual growth rate of 2.0% between 2014 to 2015. This growth rate is the growth rate in the adopted forecast for Hood River and consistent with the growth rate in the medium forecast in the Hood River County Coordinated Population Forecast 2008-2028. Table 15 shows that the Hood River UGB will grow by 4,528 people between 2015 and 2035, at an average annual growth rate of 2.0%.

 WHEREAS, the City of Hood River Planning Commission conducted a Public Hearing on July 6, 2015 to consider legislative amendments to the City’s Comprehensive Plan and Background Report, after which it recommended Council adoption of an amended Hood River County Coordinated Population Forecast (2008-2028), an amendment to the City’s Comprehensive Plan and Background Report based upon information in the staff report; and  

 WHEREAS, the City Council duly noticed and convened a public hearing at its regular meeting on August 10, 2015, at which time it received public testimony and comment on the proposal received from the Planning Commission and after reviewing the written and oral testimony and the Staff and Planning Commission recommendations, deliberated on the proposal.

 NOW, THEREFORE, based on the foregoing findings, the City Council for the City of Hood River ordains as follows:

Section 1. The Hood River Comprehensive Land Use Plan is amended to delete Table 15 (Population Forecast) from the Background Report of the Hood River Comprehensive Land Use Plan.

Section 2. The Hood River Comprehensive Land Use Plan is amended to incorporate the following as the new Table 15 (Population Forecast, City of Hood River Urban Growth Boundary, 2014 to 2035) to the Background Report of the Hood River Comprehensive Land Use Plan:

Table 15. Population Forecast, City of
Hood River Urban Growth Boundary, 2014 to 2035
  Hood River UGB
2014 9,134
2015 9,317
2016 9,503
2017 9,693
2018 9,887
2019 10,085
2020 10,287
2021 10,493
2022 10,703
2023 10,917
2024 11,135
2025 11,358
2026 11,585
2027 11,817
2028 12,053
2029 12,294
2030 12,540
2031 12,791
2032 13,047
2033 13,308
2034 13,574
2035 13,845
Change 2015 to 2035
Number 4,528
Percent 49%
AAGR 2.00%

Source: Population estimates for the Hood River city limits in 2014 is based on data from the Population Research Center at Portland State University.  Population estimates for the urbanizing area is based on a count of dwelling units in the urbanizing area in 2006 from the Transportation System Plan 2011 update.
Analysis by ECONorthwest.

 Read for the First Time this 24 day of August 2015. 

 Read for the Second Time and approved this 24 day of August 2015.  This Ordinance shall take effect on the 31st day following the second reading.

AYES: 7  
NAYS:   0
ABSTAIN:  0  
ABSENT:  0         
      Paul Blackburn, Mayor


ATTEST:


     
Jennifer Gray, City Recorder Approved as to form:


     
Daniel Kearns, City Attorney


EXHIBIT A - Contact City Recorder for copy of exhibit jennifer@ci.hood-river.or.us